Population and
technological innovation: the optimal interaction across modern countries
Mario Coccia
CNR --
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF ITALY
UNIVERSITY
OF STRASBOURG -BUREAU D'ECONOMIE THÉORIQUE ET APPLIQUÉE
GEORGIA
INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
Current Address: CERIS-CNR,
Collegio Carlo Alberto
Via Real Collegio, n. 30 - 10024
Moncalieri (Torino)- Italy
Tel.:
+39 011 68 24 925;
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: +39 011 68 24 966;
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Abstract: Population growth is one of the major
problems facing the world today because it affects the pattern of sustainable
economic growth. Theory of endogenous growth shows that total research output
increases faster than proportionally with population due to increases in the
size of the market, more intensive intellectual contact and greater
specialization. The study here analyses the relationship between population
growth and level of technological outputs (patent applications of residents),
focusing on OECD countries. The study seems to show the existence of an
inverted-U shaped curve between the
growth rate of population and the patents with an optimal zone in which the
average rate of growth of the population (roughly 0.3131%) is likely to be
associated to a higher level of technological outputs. The policy implications
of the study are that, in average, it is difficult to sustain a optimal level
of technological outputs either with a low (lower than 0.2197%) or high (higher
than 1.0133%) average growth rate of population (annual). In addition, the
estimated relationship of technological outputs vs. population growth tends
to be affected by decreasing returns of technological innovation to population
growth.