Working Paper Cnr-Ceris, N° 07/2013

Population and technological innovation: the optimal interaction across modern countries

Mario Coccia

CNR -- NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF ITALY

UNIVERSITY OF STRASBOURG -BUREAU D'ECONOMIE THÉORIQUE ET APPLIQUÉE

GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Current Address: CERIS-CNR, Collegio Carlo Alberto

Via Real Collegio, n. 30 - 10024

Moncalieri (Torino)- Italy

Tel.: +39 011 68 24 925;

Fax : +39 011 68 24 966;

email: Indirizzo e-mail protetto dal bots spam , deve abilitare Javascript per vederlo

Abstract:  Population growth is one of the major problems facing the world today because it affects the pattern of sustainable economic growth. Theory of endogenous growth shows that total research output increases faster than proportionally with population due to increases in the size of the market, more intensive intellectual contact and greater specialization. The study here analyses the relationship between population growth and level of technological outputs (patent applications of residents), focusing on OECD countries. The study seems to show the existence of an inverted-U shaped curve between the growth rate of population and the patents with an optimal zone in which the average rate of growth of the population (roughly 0.3131%) is likely to be associated to a higher level of technological outputs. The policy implications of the study are that, in average, it is difficult to sustain a optimal level of technological outputs either with a low (lower than 0.2197%) or high (higher than 1.0133%) average growth rate of population (annual). In addition, the estimated relationship of technological outputs vs. population growth  tends to be affected by decreasing returns of technological innovation to population growth.

Keywords: Population, Population Growth, Innovation, Technological Change, Demographic Change, Patents, Economic Change.

JEL Codes: O33; J10

download