Dynamics of the steel and long-term equilibrium hypothesis across leading geo-economic players: empirical evidence for supporting a policy formulation
Coccia Mario
CNR - National Research Council of Italy
& GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
Abstract: The
aim of this study is twofold – on the one hand, to report a flow
analysis based on historical trends of steel, from 1997 to 2008, across
some leading geo-economic players; on the other, the analysis of
long-term relationship between steel consumption and economic growth by
the sensitivity of the demand for steel consumption to a change in the
national income. Results show that steel production and consumption have
different economic behaviour across some countries: China and Italy
have higher average annual growth of production of crude (CHN 9.75%; ITA
0.83%), steel crude use equivalent (CHN 8.37%; ITA 1.95%) and steel use
finished products (CHN 9.38%; ITA 1.65%), whereas the US have higher
average annual growth of imports (13.23%) and China of exports of
semi-finished/finished steel products (20.38%). In addition, the
estimated average elasticity of consumption of steel on national income
statistical per countries, based on unidirectional causality that runs
from national income to steel consumption, shows de facto
positive values, except in UK economies. The analysis here provides main
information on the industrial structure of countries and for designing
industrial policies aimed to support patterns of economic growth in
current turbulent and fast-changing markets.
I
thank Enrico Filippi (University of Torino, Italy), John Walsh (Georgia
Institute of Technology) as well as the co-editor of Economia e
Politica Industriale for valuable suggestions and comments to improve
this working paper. Diego Margon provided excellent research assistance.
I also thank the staff of Ceris-CNR (Italy) and of Georgia Institute of
Technology (USA) for fruitful discussion on these topics and main
research support. The usual disclaimer applies.