Working Paper Cnr-Ceris, N° 02/2012 

Dynamics of the steel and long-term equilibrium hypothesis across leading geo-economic players: empirical evidence for supporting a policy formulation

Coccia Mario

CNR - National Research Council of Italy

& GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Abstract:  The aim of this study is twofold – on the one hand, to report a flow analysis based on historical trends of steel, from 1997 to 2008, across some leading geo-economic players; on the other, the analysis of long-term relationship between steel consumption and economic growth by the sensitivity of the demand for steel consumption to a change in the national income. Results show that steel production and consumption have different economic behaviour across some countries: China and Italy have higher average annual growth of production of crude (CHN 9.75%; ITA 0.83%), steel crude use equivalent (CHN 8.37%; ITA 1.95%) and steel use finished products (CHN 9.38%; ITA 1.65%), whereas the US have higher average annual growth of imports (13.23%) and China of exports of semi-finished/finished steel products (20.38%). In addition, the estimated average elasticity of consumption of steel on national income statistical per countries, based on unidirectional causality that runs from national income to steel consumption, shows de facto positive values, except in UK economies. The analysis here provides main information on the industrial structure of countries and for designing industrial policies aimed to support patterns of economic growth in current turbulent and fast-changing markets.

Keywords: Steel consumption; Steel production; Competitive Performance; Economic growth, Industrial Dynamics; Comparative analysis, Time series.

JEL Codes: C22, L61, O13, O57.

I thank Enrico Filippi (University of Torino, Italy), John Walsh (Georgia Institute of Technology) as well as the co-editor of Economia e Politica Industriale for valuable suggestions and comments to improve this working paper. Diego Margon provided excellent research assistance. I also thank the staff of Ceris-CNR (Italy) and of Georgia Institute of Technology (USA) for fruitful discussion on these topics and main research support. The usual disclaimer applies.

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